Experts are split on whether the latest UK labour market data for October to November will cause the Bank of England to cut rates sooner, or if it will push the decision back.
There was a smaller than expected rise in jobless claims, Office for National Statistics data showed today, with unemployment largely around expectations at 4.2% while the employment rate rose slightly in the three months to November at 75.8% (up from 75.7%).
Annual wage growth rates came in at 6.6%, down from 7.2%, although this is still above inflation, which is good news for workers.
It was the 18th consecutive month in which there were falling job vacancies, the longest run on record, according to Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, who suggested the cost-of-living crisis has forced some previously “economically inactive” people to rejoin the workforce.
The data is particularly important to investors at present as it is known to be a closely watched marker for the Bank of England in its fight against inflation.
“Together with rising employment, it may put the Bank of England off cutting interest rates any time soon. If the economy can function with interest rates at their current level, why cut?” he asked.
“That would bode ill for investors, who have bet big on rates falling this year and could see share and bond prices fall if rate cuts don't come through as expected.”
Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said cooling wage growth will indeed be “welcomed” by policymakers, but warned that it is still “historically high”.
“The big number is the inflation number, which we won’t get until tomorrow, but even if that comes in as expected no one really thinks rate cuts will come until late spring to allow time for the impact of shipping disruption to be weighed up and to help counter any potential reinflation if energy prices surge,” she said.
What will the Bank of England do?
Experts were mixed on what the figure ultimately mean for the future decisions of the UK central bank. Derrick Dunne, chief executive of YOU Asset Management, agreed with Hyett that the Bank of England will be “unlikely to pull the trigger on interest rate cuts until there are signs that wage growth has cooled even further”.
Yet Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments, said today’s data is in line with Bank of England forecasts, which had anticipated pay growth to remain higher at this point in the cycle, keeping it broadly on track.
“A softening in wage growth will hopefully help extinguish any fears of persistent vicious wage-inflation spirals. If anything, as wage growth cools inflation should cool too in a virtuous spiral, but we are only still at the first part of that journey with wage growth still at the high-end for the Bank of England at least,” he said.
“Every journey starts with small steps and as we see inflation approach the Bank of England's target, calls for rate cuts will grow ever louder.”